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Reference · 2026

Frameworks & Standards

No two firms measure tokenized assets the same way. Pantera scores them wrapper-to-native. S&P rates stablecoins 1 to 5. Credora applies A-D credit grades. RWA.xyz separates Distributed from Represented. The IMF treats the whole category as a structural shift.

Each one measures something different. This page lays them out side by side, with the industry research that surrounds them.

Last updated May 2026All entries verified against primary sources
00 /

Comparison

Click any row to read the full entry.

01 /

Maturity

How onchain-native is this asset?

Tokenization Progress Index

Maturity

Pantera CapitalMay 2026

One-shot index. Pantera scored 542 tokenized assets on a wrapper-to-native continuum. Wrapper means the token is a claim on an asset a custodian holds offchain. Native means issuance, redemption, and custody all sit onchain. 77.6% of the set are wrappers and 91% still require gated issuance and redemption, which Pantera calls 'a rational output of a market where compliance still assumes intermediary-controlled processes.' Authored by GP Franklin Bi with Ally Zach and Danning Sui.

Output
Wrapper-to-native scale, 542 assets scored
Coverage
542 tokenized assets across treasuries, credit, equities, commodities
Source
fortune.com ↗Pantera Capital ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Distributed and Represented

Maturity

RWA.xyzNov 2025

Binary split. Distributed tokens use the blockchain as a real distribution layer. Represented tokens live in platform-locked accounts and stand in for offchain claims. Two tests: whether the token can leave the issuing platform, and whether it can move peer-to-peer. Applied across the full RWA.xyz dashboard. RWA.xyz expects the buckets to converge as represented assets pick up distribution and distributed assets pick up compliance features.

Output
Binary categorization
Coverage
All tokenized assets tracked on RWA.xyz
Source
rwa.xyz ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Spectrum of Tokenization

Maturity

RWA.xyzNov 2025

Companion to Distributed/Represented. The binary collapses too much, so this scores assets across custody, transferability, and onchain settlement. RWA.xyz publishes both and treats them as complements: the binary for the headline view, the spectrum when assets on the same side of the line need to be told apart.

Output
Spectrum / multi-dimensional
Coverage
Companion methodology to Distributed/Represented
Source
rwa.xyz ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Proof-of-Index

Maturity

Centrifuge × S&P Dow Jones IndicesSep 2025

Built with S&P Dow Jones Indices for the first tokenized S&P 500 index fund. S&P publishes the official index composition as a cryptographic hash onchain, a fingerprint. Licensed funds submit their own fingerprint to a smart contract. If the fingerprints match, the fund is tracking faithfully, and nobody learns the fund's holdings. Solves the auditability problem for tokenized index products without forcing the issuer to disclose positions.

Output
Cryptographic verification (zero-knowledge style)
Coverage
Tokenized index funds tracking S&P 500
Source
centrifuge.io ↗S&P DJI explainer ↗Verified 2026-05-07
02 /

Risk Ratings

Should I lend against, allocate to, or hold this?

DeFi Credit Rating

Risk Ratings

Credora by RedStoneSep 2025

Letter-scale ratings A through D, anchored to a probability-of-default curve calibrated on credit cycles 1990-2023. Beyond standard credit factors, Credora scores RWA-specific dimensions: regulatory licensing, custodian quality, legal entity structure, bankruptcy remoteness, jurisdictional exposure. RedStone acquired Credora on September 4, 2025 and now pipes the ratings as oracle feeds to Spark, Morpho, and others. Rated DeFi strategies have outpaced unrated peers by ~25% in growth.

Output
A-D letter scale, anchored to Probability of Default curve
Coverage
DeFi vaults and tokenized credit positions on Morpho, Spark, and others
Source
blog.redstone.finance ↗ratings.credora.network ↗credora.network ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Horizon Risk Framework

Risk Ratings

Aave Horizon (LlamaRisk + Chaos Labs + Chainlink)Sep 2025

Aave Horizon is a lending market for institutional borrowers using RWA collateral. Three-firm risk stack. LlamaRisk runs diligence on each RWA and recommends LTV, liquidation thresholds, and supply/borrow caps. Chaos Labs runs agent-based simulations and stress tests. Chainlink delivers NAV via the LlamaGuard NAV oracle, which carries dynamic price bounds and trips circuit breakers when feeds are stale or out of bounds. Designed for RWA-specific frictions like custody delays and issuer-imposed redemption windows.

Output
Live oracle (LlamaGuard NAV) + parameter management
Coverage
Institutional RWA lending on Aave Horizon
Source
aave.com ↗How Horizon is built for institutions ↗LlamaGuard NAV release ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Tokenized Fund Risk Assessment

Risk Ratings

Moody'sApr 2025

Four vectors for tokenized fund risk: key-man risk from thin governance teams, blockchain disruption risk from coding flaws and exploit exposure, fragile redemption mechanisms (Moody's recommends both stablecoin and fiat redemption paths to cushion depegs), and cross-jurisdictional legal enforceability. Live, not one-shot. Moody's has already downgraded one tokenized money market fund and is contributing to MAS's Project Guardian for tokenized debt risk methodology.

Output
Narrative assessment, four risk vectors
Coverage
Tokenized funds across alternative asset markets
Source
moodys.com ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Multi-Layer Risk Framework

Risk Ratings

Steakhouse FinancialNov 2024

Curator-layer framework, not rating-layer. Three pillars. Market selection and configuration: which assets are eligible, with what parameters. Vault setup and controls: LTV ratios, oracle choices, liquidation parameters. Portfolio monitoring and reallocation: continuous review, stress testing, exit triggers. Covers credit, operational, governance, technical, and quantitative liquidity risk. Used to onboard Fasanara mF-ONE, the first tokenized private credit instrument to clear $140M in onchain exposure on DeFi, alongside other tokenized RWAs on Morpho and Sky.

Output
Curator-side assessment across three pillars
Coverage
DAO vault curation across Morpho, Sky, Kamino
Source
steakhouse.financial ↗Midas Fasanara mF-ONE case study ↗Verified 2026-05-07
03 /

Infrastructure

Is the underlying chain or contract safe enough?

Blockchain Network Risk for Regulated Finance

Infrastructure

OpenZeppelinMay 2026

Evaluates blockchain networks against the Basel Committee's cryptoasset exposure standard, in effect since January 1, 2026, which forces banks to treat blockchain dependencies as operational risk. Six dimensions: consensus security, validator concentration, finality assurances, smart contract maturity, governance robustness, operational resilience. Applied to Ethereum, Solana, BSC, XRP Ledger, Tron, and Canton. Written for the people inside regulated finance who have to make these calls.

Output
Six-dimension network assessment
Coverage
Six networks: Ethereum, Solana, BSC, XRP Ledger, Tron, Canton
Source
openzeppelin.com ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Token Standards Co-authorship

Infrastructure

OpenZeppelin2024-2026

OpenZeppelin co-authors several token standards used in regulated tokenization. ERC-3643 (T-REX) for regulated security tokens with onchain compliance and verification. ERC-7984 (Confidential Fungible Token Interface) for encrypted balances and transfer amounts, founded with Zama and Inco via the Confidential Token Association. ERC-7969 (DomainKeys Identified Mail Registry) for trustless email-ownership verification, used in some KYC patterns. Production code lives in OpenZeppelin's Solidity Community Contracts repo.

Output
Smart contract standards (ERC specs)
Coverage
ERC-3643 (T-REX), ERC-7984 (Confidential Token), ERC-7969 (DKIM)
Source
openzeppelin.com ↗ERC-3643 ↗ERC-7984 ↗Verified 2026-05-07
04 /

Policy

How should tokenized assets be governed?

Tokenized Finance

Policy

IMF (Tobias Adrian)Apr 2026

IMF Notes 2026/001, published April 2, 2026. Author: Tobias Adrian, IMF Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Argues tokenization is a structural shift in financial architecture, not a marginal efficiency gain. Warns that atomic settlement and 24/7 markets shrink the window regulators have for discretionary intervention during a crisis. Five pillars: public-trust anchoring, safe settlement assets, smart-contract governance, legal certainty, international coordination. Specific asks include disclosure requirements that make smart-contract leverage auditable, and override mechanisms for systemically important contracts under stress.

Output
Five-pillar policy roadmap
Coverage
Global financial system policy framework
Source
imf.org ↗Full PDF ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Tokenization & RWA Standards Report 2026

Policy

RedStone × Credora × Gauntlet × DuneMar 2026

Cross-industry survey of the institutional tokenization stack, not a single methodology. Part 1 covers platforms (Securitize, Ondo, Morpho, others) and DeFi composability standards. Part 2 goes deeper on RWA standards and onchain lending markets including Aave Horizon. Four authors: an oracle (RedStone), a credit-rating layer (Credora), a risk-curation firm (Gauntlet), an analytics provider (Dune). The lineup is the implicit thesis. Those four corners are the operational baseline for institutional tokenized assets.

Output
Cross-industry standards inventory (two parts)
Coverage
Platforms (Securitize, Ondo), DeFi standards, onchain lending (Morpho, Aave Horizon)
Source
blog.redstone.finance ↗Part 2 ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Cryptoasset Exposure Standards

Policy

BIS / Basel Committee on Banking SupervisionJan 2026

The Basel Committee's prudential standard for banks' cryptoasset exposures took effect January 1, 2026, alongside a finalized disclosure framework with standard public tables and templates. Capital requirements for many cryptoassets match at least the absolute exposure value. Tightened criteria for stablecoins to qualify for preferential treatment. This is the regulatory floor under most institutional tokenization activity. Every framework that touches bank participation has to land somewhere on the Basel rules.

Output
Bank capital and disclosure standard
Coverage
All Basel-supervised banks globally
Source
bis.org ↗Disclosure framework ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Tokenization of Financial Assets — Final Report

Policy

IOSCONov 2025

IOSCO's final report (FR/17/25). Coordinated view across securities regulators on how tokenization is being adopted and how they are responding. Adoption is called incipient and incremental, led by sovereign and corporate tokenized bonds and money market funds. The structural blockers are the lack of cross-blockchain interoperability and the lack of high-quality settlement assets. Legal uncertainty, operational vulnerabilities, and cyber risks map to existing risk categories but show up differently under DLT. Asks member regulators to apply IOSCO's existing crypto and DeFi recommendations to tokenized assets, under the same-activities-same-risks-same-outcomes principle.

Output
Cross-jurisdiction principles + adoption survey
Coverage
All IOSCO member jurisdictions and securities regulators
Source
iosco.org ↗Press release ↗Verified 2026-05-07

Asset Tokenization in Financial Markets

Policy

WEF × AccentureMay 2025

Published May 2025 with Accenture. Maps tokenization across issuance, securities financing, and asset management, with case studies on tokenized money market funds as collateral. Three efficiency drivers: smart contract automation of lifecycle events, golden-source ledgers that cut reconciliation, fractional ownership that lowers entry barriers. Names upgraded collateral management as the single biggest near-term capital effect, with the potential to free over $100B annually. Includes a policy roadmap for jurisdictions running cross-border tokenization.

Output
Cross-industry analysis + policy roadmap
Coverage
Issuance, securities financing, asset management
Source
weforum.org ↗Full PDF ↗Verified 2026-05-07
05 /

Industry Research

Newest first.

Tokenization-focused publications only. Forecasts, state-of-market, sector studies. Each one verified against the original source on the date shown.

  1. ForecastMay 2026

    Stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, and the Evolving Structure of Dollar Finance

    Galaxy Research

    Galaxy Research policy paper on the GENIUS Act and the structural shift it forces on dollar finance. Author Thaddeus Pinakiewicz models stablecoin supply at $1T by 2028 and $1.5T by 2030. GENIUS Act embeds structural demand for short-dated US Treasuries through reserve requirements. ~70% of incremental stablecoin demand comes from offshore, channeling foreign capital into US banks. Bank margins compress. Dollar dominance strengthens. Downstream effects modeled: 3-5bp Treasury yield compression worth ~$3B/year, 31¢ of credit creation per dollar minted.

    $1.5T stablecoin supply by 2030 · ~70% offshore demand · 31¢ credit per dollar

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  2. SurveyApr 2026

    The Financial Grid: Banking, Digital Assets, and the Infrastructure Decisions Defining 2026

    Fireblocks

    Survey of 638 senior decision-makers at transaction banks, investment banks, commercial banks, and custodians across five regions. 88% are funding digital asset infrastructure but only 16% have shipped to production. Custody architecture and wallet governance unresolved at most institutions. Tokenized securities rank as the top planned asset, hitting 68% at regional transaction banks. The supply-side build-out captured at scale.

    638 banks surveyed · 88% funding the rails, 16% in production

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  3. SectorApr 2026

    Investing in the Tokenization Megatrend

    Grayscale

    Grayscale Research's flagship tokenization thesis. Living document since May 2024, last refreshed April 2026. The argument: tokenization is a structural megatrend, not a market cycle. Maps the asset classes most exposed (treasuries, private credit, real estate, equities) onto the public blockchain platforms positioned to capture value. The blockchain-layer thesis the existing forecast reports lean away from.

    $30T+ within a decade · tokenization as megatrend, not cycle

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  4. SurveyApr 2026

    Tokenization Outlook 2026

    Centrifuge

    Survey of 150 operators across issuance, distribution, infrastructure, risk analytics, and liquidity. The finding worth holding onto: distribution, not issuance, is now the binding constraint. That puts the wrapper-vs-native debate in a different place. Forecasts RWA TVL clearing $100B by end of 2026.

    150 operators surveyed · 86% prioritize distribution scaling

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  5. ForecastApr 2026

    The $400B Future of Tokenised Assets

    Keyrock × Securitize

    Co-authored with Securitize. Maps regulatory, liquidity, and infrastructure conditions across treasuries, private credit, equities, commodities, and alternative funds. The path from ~$29B distributed today to $400B is a 1,000%+ expansion that hinges on each asset class clearing its own specific bottleneck.

    $400B distributed RWA by 2030 (base case)

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  6. State of MarketApr 2026

    RWA Report 2026

    CoinGecko

    Quarterly state-of-market on tokenized real-world assets. Market cap grew from $5.42B at the start of 2025 to $19.32B by March 31, 2026. Tokenized treasuries added $9B (+225%) and carried more than half the sector's growth.

    $19.3B tokenized RWA by Q1 2026 (+256% in 15 months)

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  7. SectorMar 2026

    Building the Path Towards Digital Asset Securities Interoperability

    DTCC × Clearstream × Euroclear × BCG

    Follow-up to the 2024 DASCP paper. Authored by Nadine Chakar (DTCC), Jens Hachmeister (Clearstream), Isabelle Delorme (Euroclear), and Frédéric Brugère (BCG). Builds an interoperability framework on five foundations: assets and liabilities, ownership, asset lifecycle, ledgers, and legal/regulatory compliance. Anchored on $24B in RWA tokens, $1.3B in digital-native securities, $300B+ daily repo on DLT rails growing 90-120% YoY. The argument: the operating model is a network of networks, not a single ledger. The GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, SEC crypto rule overhaul, and EU DLT Pilot regime are converging to unlock real adoption.

    $24B RWA · $1.3B digital-native · $300B+ daily DLT repo · network of networks

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  8. SectorJan 2026

    Stablecoin Payments: The Truth Behind the Numbers

    BCG × Allium

    BCG and Allium collaboration that filters the $62T raw stablecoin transfer volume to isolate $4.2T of real economic activity (~7%) and $350-550B of real-economy payments. Behavior-based classification framework using transaction size, frequency, and counterparty diversity. Excludes synthetic, bridged, pre-minted tokens, bot activity, and wallets above 1,000 transactions or $10M volume in 30 days. Companion dashboard updates the data live. Disambiguates the headline volume the existing forecast reports lean on.

    $62T headline · $4.2T real activity · $350-550B real-economy payments

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  9. ForecastJan 2026

    2026 Look Ahead

    Fidelity Digital Assets

    Fidelity Digital Assets' annual Look Ahead, published January 7, 2026. The 2025 prior reported on-chain tokenized assets rising from $14B to $30B and called tokenization a 'killer application.' The 2026 edition extends the thesis: 2025 ended quietly on price but loudly on infrastructure. Tokenized RWAs and stablecoins identified as the primary bridges between digital and traditional finance.

    Tokenization, ETPs, derivatives drive market structure beyond price

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  10. SectorDec 2025

    Understanding Stablecoins

    IMF (Monetary and Capital Markets Department)

    IMF departmental paper led by Tobias Adrian with 14 co-authors. 56 pages covering market developments, use cases, financial-stability and currency-substitution risks, and the regulatory landscape. Calls for harmonized legal definitions, strict reserve and redemption standards, granular reserve disclosure, and cross-border supervisory colleges. The most authoritative recent multilateral assessment of stablecoin macro risks.

    56-page IMF survey on stablecoin macro-financial risks and harmonization

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  11. SectorOct 2025

    The Rise of Stablecoins and Implications for Treasury Markets

    Brookings Institution

    Brookings working paper by Sonja Davidovic (IMF), Tarek Ghani (Brookings), and Mariano Moszoro (IMF). Models how stablecoin adoption translates into incremental US Treasury bill demand. Quantifies the displacement effect of stablecoins replacing physical cash and Eurodollar deposits in cross-border flows. Closes the loop on what bank-issued stablecoins do to sovereign funding.

    Cross-border stablecoin demand projects step-change in short-dated Treasury demand

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  12. SurveyOct 2025

    Digital Assets and Emerging Technology Study 2025

    State Street

    State Street's fifth annual digital assets study. 324 senior executives at global asset managers and asset owners surveyed September 2025. Private equity and private fixed income are the first asset classes investors expect to migrate onchain. Average digital asset exposure forecast to double in three years. 40% of institutions now run a dedicated digital assets team. Custodian-side data on asset-owner intent, a different sample from the EY-Coinbase survey.

    324 institutions surveyed · majority expect 10-24% of holdings tokenized by 2030

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  13. SurveySep 2025

    Citi Securities Services Evolution 2025

    Citi

    Citi's fifth annual post-trade industry survey. 537 custodians, broker-dealers, and asset managers covered. Bank-issued stablecoins emerge as the primary enabler of tokenized collateral and fund-share movement. Forecasts 10% of market turnover routed through tokenized assets by 2030. Collateral efficiency, fund tokenization, and private market securities lead the 2025 use cases. 76% actively working on T+1. Asia-Pacific leads adoption.

    537 post-trade participants · 10% of market turnover tokenized by 2030

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  14. State of MarketJun 2025

    Stablecoin Payments from the Ground Up

    Castle Island Ventures × Artemis × Dragonfly

    Joint research from Castle Island Ventures, Artemis, and Dragonfly. Surveys 31 stablecoin payment companies across B2B, P2P, B2C, card payments, and prefunding. Pulls payment-attributable on-chain volume out of the $300B stablecoin supply and quantifies B2B's 30x growth from sub-$100M monthly in 2023 to over $3B monthly by 2025. Singapore-China is the most active corridor. The bottom-up payment dataset that complements the trillion-dollar TAM forecasts in the existing report set.

    $72.3B stablecoin payments annualized · 30x B2B growth · Singapore-China most active

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  15. SectorJun 2025

    The Next-Generation Monetary and Financial System (BIS AER 2025, Chapter III)

    Bank for International Settlements

    38-page chapter from the BIS Annual Economic Report 2025. Argues for a unified ledger combining tokenized central bank reserves, tokenized commercial bank deposits, and tokenized government bonds. Subjects stablecoins to three monetary tests (singleness, elasticity, integrity) and concludes they fail all three. Positions deposit tokens and CBDC as the structural alternative. References Project Agorá and Project Pine. The institutional counter-thesis to stablecoin-as-monetary-system.

    Stablecoins fail singleness, elasticity, integrity tests · unified ledger as alternative

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  16. ForecastApr 2025

    Approaching the Tokenization Tipping Point

    Boston Consulting Group × Ripple

    Forecasts global tokenized asset market growth from ~$0.6T in 2025 to $18.9T by 2033 (midpoint, 53% CAGR). Excludes cryptocurrencies and CBDCs. Includes stablecoins and tokenized deposits in the count, which is most of the gap to McKinsey's $2-4T figure.

    $18.9T tokenized assets by 2033 (53% CAGR midpoint)

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  17. ForecastApr 2025

    Citi GPS: Stablecoins 2030 — From Web3 to Wall Street

    Citi

    Citi GPS companion to the Securities Services Evolution survey. Treats stablecoins as the load-bearing layer for tokenized asset settlement. Tracks issuance from $200B at start of 2025 toward the $1.9T 2030 target and quantifies the migration of cross-border B2B, consumer remittance, and tokenized fund settlement onto stablecoin rails. Bank-issued stablecoins are the institutional vehicle of choice, not dollar-pegged crypto-natives. The thesis: tokenization at scale requires programmable cash, and the cash layer matures faster than the asset layer.

    $1.9T stablecoin issuance by 2030 · cash layer matures faster than asset layer

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-09
  18. SurveyJan 2025

    Institutional Investor Digital Assets Survey

    EY-Parthenon × Coinbase

    Survey of 300+ institutional investors. 86% have or intend to allocate to digital assets. Of those interested in tokenized assets specifically, 11% are already invested and 61% expect to be by 2026. Worth reading against the wrapper-skeptic position. Institutional money is moving in even with supply still wrapper-heavy.

    11% institutional investors invested in tokenized assets · 61% expect to by 2026

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  19. State of Market2025

    The Great Tokenization Shift: 2025 and the Road Ahead

    Keyrock

    70-page state-of-market by Keyrock covering U.S. treasuries, private credit, equities, and commodities. Argues that in 2025 wrappers stopped being placeholders and became DeFi building blocks. The native-replaces-wrapper story does not show up.

    70+ pages, 5 asset classes, wrappers → DeFi building blocks

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  20. SectorOct 2024

    Tokenized Funds: The Third Revolution in Asset Management

    Boston Consulting Group

    Sector forecast on tokenization in asset management. BCG estimates tokenized fund AUM could reach 1% of global mutual fund and ETF AUM in seven years (>$600B). The pitch: third revolution after the index fund and the ETF.

    $600B+ tokenized fund AUM by 2030 (≈1% of global mutual fund + ETF AUM)

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  21. ForecastJun 2024

    Real-World Asset Tokenisation: A Game Changer for Global Trade

    Standard Chartered × Synpulse

    Trade-finance focused forecast. Tokenized asset demand reaching $30.1T by 2034, with trade finance among the top three categories at 16% of the total. The pitch is tokenization as the way to close the $2.5T global trade finance gap.

    $30.1T tokenized assets by 2034 · trade finance up to 16% of total

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  22. ForecastJun 2024

    From Ripples to Waves: The Transformational Power of Tokenizing Assets

    McKinsey

    McKinsey's forecast lands at $2-4T by 2030 in the base case, with broad adoption 'still far away.' Tighter scope than BCG-Ripple. McKinsey counts RWA proper and leaves out stablecoins and tokenized deposits. The gap to BCG-Ripple's $18.9T is mostly a definitional fight, not a forecasting one.

    $2-4T tokenized assets by 2030 (more conservative than peers)

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  23. SectorMay 2024

    Building the Digital Asset Securities Ecosystem (DASCP)

    DTCC × Clearstream × Euroclear × BCG

    Foundational FMI-side risk and control framework signed by the CEOs of DTCC, Clearstream, and Euroclear. Authored by Nadine Chakar and Renée Berman with BCG. Reviewed ~100 regulations and white papers, conducted 20+ interviews with market participants and technology vendors. Defines DAS as DLT-issued or digital-twin securities (excluding crypto, stablecoins, CBDCs) and lays out a complete risk and control taxonomy with a translated case study. Cites GFMA's $15-20B annual operational cost savings and the BCG×ADDX $16T-by-2030 forecast. Designed to transition to a neutral industry association for ongoing stewardship.

    ~100 regulations reviewed · FMI-side risk and control framework for tokenized securities

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  24. Forecast2023

    Tokenization of Real-World Assets

    Roland Berger

    Roland Berger's landscape map. Forecasts $10.9T by 2030. The body of the report focuses on which asset classes are most tokenizable and the design choices each one forces. One of the earlier consultancy reports to put tokenization in the multi-trillion-dollar bucket.

    $10.9T tokenized assets by 2030

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07
  25. Forecast2022

    Asset Tokenization in Financial Markets: A Trillion Opportunity

    Boston Consulting Group × ADDX

    The 2022 BCG × ADDX report. Source of the $16T-by-2030 figure that ran the tokenization conversation for years. Best case reached $68T. Predicted high-net-worth and institutional investors would allocate 8.6% and 5.6% of portfolios to tokenized assets by 2026, two trajectories the 2025 surveys are starting to test against reality.

    $16T tokenized assets by 2030 (the original headline number)

    Source ↗Verified 2026-05-07

06 /

Tensions

Read the frameworks against each other and six structural disagreements show up. None are minor.

01

The forecast spread is a definitional problem, not a forecasting one

McKinsey says $2-4T by 2030. BCG-ADDX says $16T. BCG-Ripple says $18.9T by 2033. Standard Chartered says $30.1T by 2034. Roland Berger lands at $10.9T. They are not disagreeing about how fast. They are disagreeing about what is being counted. McKinsey limits to RWA proper. Standard Chartered includes trade finance assets sitting offchain. BCG-Ripple includes stablecoins and tokenized deposits. The market has no shared definition of what tokenization is. The 15x spread between the high and low forecasts is not analyst error. It is category drift.

02

Wrappers might be the destination, not the waystation

Pantera reads the 78% wrapper rate as evidence tokenization has not delivered. The implicit claim is that native deployment is progress. IMF, Moody's, IOSCO, and most institutional voices land somewhere else: native deployment needs legal infrastructure (smart-contract enforceability, oracle liability, validator-as-fiduciary frameworks), none of which exists for institutional capital and may never. On that view, wrappers are not a transitional compromise. They are the form institutional money is willing to use. The wrapper-skeptic position is becoming the minority view even with the wrapper rate this high.

03

The bottleneck has moved from issuance to distribution

Most consequential shift in the last 12 months. Centrifuge's March 2026 survey of 150 operators makes it explicit: 86% prioritize scaling distribution over new product launches. Liquidity, secondary markets, and composability are now the constraint, not the asset side. That moves the wrapper-skeptic narrative out of the way. The question stopped being “how do we make tokenized assets that are real?” and became “how do we move the ones we have?” Most of the existing frameworks are still scoring the issuance side. The frameworks have not caught up to where the work is.

04

Every framework encodes a thesis. None are neutral.

Pantera rewards native deployment because their thesis demands it. RWA.xyz's distributed/represented binary stays as agnostic as a binary can be. S&P imports traditional credit ratings because that is their leverage. Credora builds DeFi-native risk because that is the gap they are filling. OpenZeppelin asks if the chain is safe because that is their attack surface. IMF asks if the system can be governed because that is their job. The fragmentation is not a problem to solve. It is a feature. Every measurement framework reflects what its publisher wants tokenization to be for. The right move at each one is to ask: what does this framework reward? And read the answer back.

05

The 2030 forecasts assume rails that aren't built

The 2030 forecasts assume the rails are built. Fireblocks puts 88% of banks at funding stage and 16% in production. Citi has 76% of post-trade firms still working on T+1, not even at the tokenization layer. State Street's institutional sample expects 10-24% of holdings tokenized by 2030. None of those numbers can land on the rails that exist today. The forecasts say tokenization is on track. What they mean is appetite is on track. The plumbing is two steps behind.

06

The cash leg is doing the work, not the asset leg

Most tokenization framing is asset-side. Wrapper or native, treasuries or private credit, what counts and what doesn't. Citi and Fireblocks both flip the lens. The cash leg is the load-bearing piece. The institutional settlement vehicle is the bank-issued stablecoin, not the crypto-native dollar peg. Tokenized fund shares need programmable cash to settle atomically. The asset side gets the press. The cash side is doing the work. The metric that matters for tokenization adoption is bank stablecoin issuance, not RWA TVL.

07 /

What's Missing

There is no L2BEAT-equivalent for tokenized assets. No live, public, permissionless-progression staging framework with Stage 0 / Stage 1 / Stage 2 levels that aggregates all assets and updates continuously. RWA.xyz is the closest, but Distributed/Represented is binary, not staged. Pantera's index is one-shot research. Credora is grade-based, not stage-based. The Stages-of-Tokenization slot is open.

The gap looks bigger up close. Three related absences:

  1. i.

    No live aggregator measuring distribution velocity. Where the 2026 work is happening per Centrifuge's survey. Nobody is tracking it.

  2. ii.

    No framework agnostic to issuance method that scores secondary market liquidity, oracle dependency, settlement finality, and redemption queue depth as a unified profile.

  3. iii.

    No periodic what changed framework. RWA.xyz tracks levels; nothing tracks transitions between distributed/represented or wrapper/native states over time.

What gets measured is shifting under the frameworks faster than they can update.

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Changelog

  • 2026-05-09Added 8 reports today. Page scope expanded to include stablecoin/cash-leg research per Tension 06 (DTCC ×2, Galaxy Research, Citi GPS Stablecoins 2030, BCG × Allium, IMF Understanding Stablecoins, Brookings on Treasury Markets, Castle Island × Artemis × Dragonfly, BIS AER Ch III).
  • 2026-05-08Added 5 industry reports from mapped publishers (Fireblocks, Grayscale, Fidelity, State Street, Citi).
  • 2026-05-07Page launched. 17 frameworks across 4 categories, 12 industry reports.